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scenario thinking

Kodak, paardenmest en horloges

We moeten de toekomst niet voorspellen maar verkennen. De toekomst is niet te voorspellen. Er zijn talloze voorbeelden te vinden van uitspraken van mensen die geprobeerd hebben de toekomst te voorspellen en er volledig naast zaten. Wie gaat zoeken op internet naar ‘predictions gone wrong’ zal veel voorbeelden vinden. Een […]

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4 Pitfalls for Foresight Practitioners

Thinking about the future and practicing foresight is no cakewalk. This is made very clear in the book Foresight in Action. The authors have done ethnographic research on how foresight practitioners proceed in practice, with respect to the policy practice. The study took place at several Dutch ministries and planning […]

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Scenarios as a warning: Limits to growth

Probably the most controversial and most famous scenario study published is the Limits to Growth report. It was published as a book in 1972 and presents scenarios, based on computer modelling, on the consequences of economic and population growth. The book was funded by the Volkswagen Foundation and produced by […]

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Scenarios on contact with ETI

Scenarios are used for many different purposes and in all types of organisations. One of the most surprising and inspiring scenario studies I ever came across is the NASA & Pennsylvania State University study on whether contact with extra-terrestrials would benefit or harm humanity. The scenarios were published in 2011 […]

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The Mont Fleur Scenarios

One of the most well-known scenario exercises is the one that took place at the Mont Fleur centre in South Africa, in 1991-1992. At the time, South Africa was dealing with economic decline, social disintegration and political unrest (in this period the negotiations to end apartheid took place). This particular scenario […]

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Energy 2015: economic crash, gas fires, nuclear explosions, massive floods and black-outs

The world has become addicted to energy and for the production of it we use mostly fossil fuels. This could lead to catastrophes and endanger the lives of many people, as can be seen in MSNBC’s documentary Future Earth: 2015 Addicted to power. Like it’s predecessor Future Earth 2025 this documentary […]

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Water in 2025: drought, locusts, fire, wars and floods

What might be the consequences of global water shortages in 2025? To answer this question, MSNBC’s documentary Future Earth: 2025 provides us with five short scenarios. A documentary worth watching, even though it was originally aired in 2009 and some exact data might be outdated. I think it’s greatest worth is in […]

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